I’m going to start this off by saying I hate the fact that Anton Forsberg only gets the nod in net every tenth game or so in recent months. In my humble opinion, (I’m no coach) you should only have the starter/backup designation when one goalie is outperforming the other. The Senator’s goalies are fairly equal in performance, age, and even (somewhat) salary. It seems to be common practice in the playoffs that if one goalie is “hot” you stick with them. I understand that theory but you have to get to the playoffs first. So, what is the reason behind one of the Senator’s goalies being favoured over the other?
This post was drafted before the win against Buffalo; the stats were updated to accommodate the changes the next day.
Performance
While Joonas Korpisalo appears to be the starting goalie and Forsberg the backup, (based on the number of games played) their performance records are very similar. Both have had great games recently and both have had stinkers. It’s difficult and unfair to say one is better than the other.
An even better indicator of performance is the xG or expected goals against. This statistic is an indicator of which shots were of high-quality scoring chances. Think breakaways, screened shots, rebounds etc.
For example, this is the xG for Korpisalo’s last game (vs New Jersey, and admittedly, one of his worst)
…and this is Forsberg’s from (one of his best) the most recent win vs Buffalo:
While it’s not fair to compare one goalie’s bad game to the other’s good game, one can see how the shots’ ratings affect the statistics. Moneypuck reports Korpisalo’s total xG as -5.9 for his 21 games and Forsberg’s total xG as -8.1 for his 13 games. Sadly, neither are great
Salary and Age
Perhaps the decision is based on the salary the team is forking out, ie slightly more for Korpisalo (4 million) than Forsberg (2.75 million). It cannot be their age difference as they are pretty close in that respect as well (soon to be 30, and just turned 31, respectively).
Confidence and Consistency
Can we really expect Forsberg to play with confidence and consistency when he plays so few games? Has no one else noticed he plays better as the game goes on and faces more shots? The same applies to Korpisalo; maybe he’d play more consistently if he didn’t have to play every game. If they alternated, it would create a healthy competition between the two, perhaps igniting confidence and consistency in both of them. Then, if one comes out on top significantly, you have determined your starter and backup.
Too simple?
